Women's T20 WC Scenarios: India, SA in a tight race to the semis

With 80% of the Group Stage games done at the ICC Women's T20 World Cup 2026, hosts England are the only ones to have confirmed a semi-final berth. As for Group A, all four teams in action on Sunday (June 28) stand a chance, with six-time winners Australia almost there.

Group A Points Table

Here's a detailed look at what the Group A teams need to make it to the final-four.

Fixtures remaining:

Match 29: BAN-W vs SA-W, Lord's, June 28

Match 30: AUS-W vs IND-W, Lord's, June 28

All the NRR (net run-rate) calculations have been done assuming a first-innings score of 150, unless specified otherwise.

Australia

With a spotless 4-0 record in the competition so far and a mighty strong NRR of +4.724, Australia are almost through, though there exists an improbable mathematical chance of them missing out. This can happen only if there's a three-way tie between them, India and South Africa at 8 points each, and they fall behind on NRR.

Australia's NRR will fall behind India if, they lose their final league game

- By 91 runs OR

- With 11.5 overs to spare

Australia's NRR will dip to +2.713 if the margin is exactly 91 runs, and to +2.992 if it's 11.5 overs to spare. For South Africa to go past them in the former case, they will need to beat Bangladesh by 209 runs if they post 250 batting first.

Note: Australia have won 24 of the 27 matches across the five T20 World Cup editions since 2018. Of those three defeats, two have come against India.

India

• India will be eliminated if they lose to Australia and South Africa beat Bangladesh earlier.
• India's best case scenario is to win against Australia, should South Africa beat Bangladesh to finish on eight points.

South Africa are in almost no position to pip India on NRR in case the two teams are tied on 8 points. For context, South Africa can go past India's existing NRR of +2.268, if they beat Bangladesh by 167 runs after posting 200.

Even in the case of a six-points tie between India, South Africa and Bangladesh, India are well placed. Say if Bangladesh beat South Africa in a Super Over (150 plays 150), India will be knocked out only if they lose to Australia:

• By 119 runs if they're chasing 151
• By 120 runs if they're chasing 201

South Africa

• South Africa can go through without depending on NRR if they beat Bangladesh and Australia beat India later.
• A defeat to Bangladesh almost knocks them out even if Australia beat India later, as explained in the India section.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh's campaign is over for all practical purposes, though there exists a mathematical chance bordering on absolute absurdity, should there be a three-way tie at six points each:

• If Bangladesh beat South Africa by 100 runs, their NRR would rise to +0.462.
• India can fall behind that only if they lose the final Group game by more than 130 runs

For a complete guide on Group B scenarios, click here